Why Restore Britain Cannot Win Makerfield

In the upcoming Makerfield by-election, Restore Britain is positioning itself as a fresh alternative. However, a cold look at the numbers shows the party faces an almost impossible uphill battle to actually win the seat.

The Threshold for Victory

To defeat the Labour candidate (widely reported as the frontrunner Burnham), a party will likely need to secure around 40% of the vote in what is expected to be a multi-party contest. This is a high bar in a fragmented field.

The May Local Election Baseline

Recent local election results in the area provide a clear snapshot of current support:

•  Reform UK: 50%

•  Labour: 26%

•  Restore Britain: 0%

These figures highlight Reform’s dominant position on the ground and Restore’s current invisibility.

Where Can Restore Get Its Votes?

Restore Britain’s challenge is structural. The party is ideologically closest to Reform UK, meaning it will overwhelmingly draw support from the same pool of voters disillusioned with the establishment. It is highly unlikely to make significant inroads into traditional Labour voters.

•  Even if Restore managed to persuade 20% of Reform voters to switch, that would deliver only around 10% of the total vote share.

•  A more realistic switch of 10% of Reform voters would give Restore roughly 5%.

Importantly, many Reform voters are likely to stay loyal precisely because they fear splitting the vote and handing the seat to Labour. The classic “don’t split the vote” dynamic works strongly against Restore here.

The Non-Voter Gamble

Another potential source of support is mobilising people who didn’t vote in the locals. However, turning out non-voters is one of the hardest tasks in politics.

Even an extremely ambitious effort that convinced 20% of non-voters to back Restore would still fall far short of the 40% needed — and such a swing in turnout from a low-engagement group is exceptionally rare in a single constituency by-election.

Best-Case Fantasy Scenario

Let’s be generous and run the most optimistic numbers possible for Restore:

•  20% switch from Reform voters → +10%

•  20% of non-voters mobilised → +11%

Total: ~21%

This would represent an impressive breakthrough for a new party with no current base. It would be a strong protest result and moral victory. But it would still leave Restore nearly 20 points short of winning the seat.

The Hard Truth

Restore Britain is not a serious contender to win Makerfield. It is, at best, a vote splitter.

By competing directly for the same anti-establishment, Reform-leaning voters, Restore risks fragmenting the very coalition that has the best chance of defeating Labour. The real contest in Makerfield is shaping up to be a straight fight between Reform UK and Labour.

For voters who want to remove Labour from the seat, the data is blunt: supporting Restore Britain is far more likely to help Labour hold on than it is to deliver a Restore victory. The numbers don’t lie — and in politics, numbers ultimately decide elections.